Ok, so we are a little past the first month. But after the first six weeks of the baseball season, and now minor league ball is underway, now is just as good as any to review and gather some takeaways from the baseball season. But before we get going, I have to ask, how are we doing? The baseball season has been perplexing to say the least, the Dodgers can’t figure out how to win series anymore, the Royals were really good at one point, now they are really bad, the Angels are doing their best Royals impression, and the Twins, no matter how well Byron Buxton is playing, can’t win period, as they are 8 games below .500. But what have we always been told about ‘April Baseball’?
What’s the lesson? Don’t panic right?
Even though every expert, or baseball personality will tell you that ‘it’s early’ or we have had ‘a small sample size’ the early part of the baseball season can be very revealing. In fact, incredibly revealing. Let’s say your team got off to a bad start (for the purpose of this exercise, let’s say 3 or more games below .500) while you are trying to convince yourself, that your team just needs to get healthy, or this batter or pitcher is just trying to find their grove, while your trying to be rationally calm, there is an ugly truth.
Since 1995, after the first 25 games of the season, only 19 teams (out of a possible 112) have made the playoffs who started the season 3 games or more under .500. So while yes, it is early and teams can turn it around, almost 90% of the time, if you are below that mendoza line, chances are you will not be looking forward to postseason baseball. So while you are trying to calm your nerves by saying things like ‘Baseball is a sprint, not a marathon’, your baseball season could be coming to an end quicker than you have hoped.
But with that being said...it is early...and baseball shouldn’t be all about winning and losing. If you are unfamiliar with myself, understand that I am a Mets fan, so I have to find happiness some way.
My plan going forward is to do a similar article every month, where we go over various developments in Major League Baseball, College Baseball, Prospects, and the Draft. But I also would like to dive into other ‘pop’ cultural aspects of the game like collections and the greatest video game in the past decade, MLB ‘the Show’. My Diamond Dynasty team is quite good (even though I am not) and my baseball collection seems to grow daily as my bank account has an opposite effect.
So let’s get to it…
If the Playoffs Started Today...
Wild Card: Cleveland vs. New York
Number 1 Seed: Oakland A’s
2 vs. 3: Boston vs. Chicago
Wild Card: San Diego vs. Milwaukee
Number 1 Seed: St. Louis Cardinals
2 vs. 3: San Francisco vs. New York
The fact is, it is early and we can very easily see this change from month to month. But it also depends on how you look at it as well. For example, it’s easy to say oh the A’s won’t be the number one seed by October, especially considering Jed Lowrie (the ex-Met) is currently their best hitter with a .274 average and only Matt Olsen has an OPS over .800. From the pitching side, they are not exactly intimidating anyone over there as Sean Manea has been by far their best pitcher, and their one pitching acquisition from the offseason, Sergio Romo has an ERA over 7. But it is the A’s and they have a way of finding their way into the postseason, and no one would really be surprised if this were to continue.
But what would be surprising is if at least half of these teams did not find their way in postseason play. Which means if you look at the preseason predictions, teams like the Red Sox, the Brewers, the Giants, and the Cleveland Ball Club (god that’s going to be annoying) have a really good shot to get into the postseason, something most of those fans could have only dreamt of. But which ones are contenders or pretenders?
Red Sox: Contender
The offense is overwhelmingly good, and while decorators will focus on the Red Sox pitching as being the achilles heel (and yes it is presently overachieving), their divisional contenders staffs are not much better. The Red Sox should continue to bash AL East pitching, well enough to get them in the playoffs. Health is key, and if Sale can come back after the All-Star break and be 75% of what he was, that’s going to be a big addition.
Cleveland: Contender
Cleveland is what we would consider to be the polar opposite of the Red Sox, but are just as effective. While the Red Sox offense has been propelling them to wins, Cleveland’s pitching has been just as good. Shane Bieber is off on another Cy Young campaign, Civale and Plesac have been excellent, and the bullpen for Cleveland has been one of the best in the majors. Emmanuel Clase looks like a bonafide closer, James Karinchak has a sub 1.00 ERA and Cal Quantrill has re-invented himself as a reliable bullpen option. If the age old saying of ‘pitching wins’ is true, then Cleveland will be winning all year.
Brewers: Contender
This is mostly true because the division is so mediocre, but the 1-2 punch of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes may be the best in the sport (yeah I said it). Yelich, who has battled an injury for most of the season so far, seems to be back and his .353 batting average should help the average Brewers offense. But the Brewers do not need a juggernaut lineup like the ones we have been accustomed to. With Burnes-Woodruff and one of the best bullpens in baseball (headed by Josh Hader’s ridiculous 0.61 ERA) the Brewers will be in contention all year long.
Giants: Pretender
The Giants may be the surprise story of the baseball season. They are 23-15, and unfathomably, in first place in the stacked NL West. With a team that had the hope of finishing as close to .500 as they could, is outpacing their rival Padres and Dodgers. How is this happening? Well pitching for one. The Giants have had one of the best rotations in the sport thus far, spearheaded by Kevin Gausman’s 4-0 record, with a 1.84 ERA, Anthony DeSciafani is 3-1 with a 2.14 ERA, and Alex Wood is 4-0 with an even more incredible 1.80 ERA. Forget Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz, this is a three headed pitching monster that will propel the Giants to the postseason right?
No, not at all. While these performances have been amazing, they are not sustainable, and neither is Buster Posey’s rival (.365, 8 homers, 12 RBI), who has propelled the Giants offensive attack. Even veterans like Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford have had nice starts to the season as well. But considering Belt, Longoria, Posey have only played more than 125 games once in the last three full seasons (and are only getting older), the Giants are soon going to have to deal with the reality of their older lineup.
Buy, Buy, Buy: Byron Buxton
So this category works in multiple ways. Whether it is fantasy, or collecting (cards or memorabilia) now is the time to go all in on Byron Buxton. Buxton has been off to a torrid start and is not only the best player on the Twins, but thick in the MVP discussions (and that’s even considering how bad the Twins have been so far this season). What also makes Buxton a great buy, is how depleted the centerfield position is in the sport right now. While Trout, Acuna, and a healthy Cody Bellinger are the top class of the sport, there is a major drop off right after that (George Springer, Ketel Marte, Ramon Lauraeno, etc.). This is the version of Buxton that everyone was excited about when he debuted in 2015. Buxton is only 27 years old, and is sprinting towards his prime. If his great year continues, he will be vaulted into that top category of the best center fielders in the game.
Sell, Sell, Sell: Any offensive player on the Rays not named, Wander Franco
Prior to Game 6 of last year’s World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays were as close as ever to be on top of the world. Then Game 6 happens, Blake Snell is pulled, the World Series is lost, Snell is traded, and the Rays are currently 21-19, and in fourth place in the AL East. Now, in no means should the Rays panic, even though the Rays offense is one of the worst in all of baseball (currently one player with an OPS above .800). Now what the Rays and their fans will argue (all 12 of them), is that their metrics still look good, they rank in the middle of the AL in many offensive categories and they mathematically, I’m sure, right where they want to be.
Unfortunately, as I tell all of my students…’math is stupid’. (And just to be clear, I just say that as their Social Studies teacher because I want them to be more interested in my subject. I just say it to be funny. Math is very important. Blah, Blah, Blah)
I am all for analytics, I am all for trying to outsmart your opponent and using data and an academic approach to winning ball games. What I am not going to support is when you try to outthink the room. The Rays offense is bad, even when Brandon Lowe rebounds (currently hitting .198) and Austin Meadows as well (currently hitting .201) the offense is still below average at best. The Rays can sell their fanbase and the sport on the whole ‘method to the madness’ approach, but let’s not forget what propelled the Rays to World Series in the first place, and a huge part of that depended on the historic postseason that Randy Arozrena, a relative unknown at the time, posted. That’s not part of the equation, that’s a player on a once in a lifetime streak. As much as the Rays want to pythagorean theorem their way to the title, the math will only get you so far. It comes back to what it has always come back to...players. And currently the best player in their entire organization, is not even with the big league club.
Wander Franco needs to be on this team, and the reality is, he needed to be on the team last year as well. The Rays are one impact bat away from being one of the best teams in the league, but are once again trying to cheap their way to the title. I get the financial constraints, I get your stadium sucks and nobody comes, but at what point does this organization fully commit to winning? The trade of Snell (which would have been necessary at some point) sent a clear message that this year is probably not the time they wish to do so, and keeping Franco in the minors, despite their offensive struggles, has only reinforced it.
This is a really good team, with really good pieces, and the reality is, they are not just one player away, because they already have that player. The Rays do not have a championship mindset and until the front office, or management, or whatever you would like to call it proves they are willing to do so, there is no reason to invest in anything this team does.
What I am collecting this week: Vlad Sr. and Vlad Jr.
When I started collecting back in January of 2020 (you know, pre-COVID) I was really interested in starting a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. collection. He was the hot rookie going into that baseball season, but I was very apprehensive about spending the money. Then Vlad had a dreadful COVID season, his numbers dropped, and I said to myself last October, I really should start buying in. But I didn’t (but at least I didn’t go all in on the Taylor Horton-Tucker nonsense).
Now Vlad has exploded and even though I could have gotten these cards cheaper three months ago, I gotta say, I am really into enjoying the hunt. Not only have I started buying Vlad Jr. but I also thought it would be cool to buy some Vlad Sr. stuff as well. A father-son collection if you will. While we have had some great father-son combos in the past, like the Griffeys, and we currently have the Bichettes’, the Tatis’, and the Biggos’ and perhaps they will be collections one day as well. But to me, the father-son combination to have is the Vlads’. Junior is emerging as one of the game’s best hitters, and the more he performs, I actually think it will help the value of Senior as well.
Vladimir Guerrero was one of the best players in one of baseball’s greatest generations, and yet there is relatively little said about him. Vlad was one of the greatest power hitters during the steroid era without any steroid suspicion ever surrounding his career. Another factor that could help Vlad aside from his son’s impressive start is the emphasis now placed on both power and speed. What separates players like Trout, Tatis, and Acuna from all others is their ability to hit for power and steal bases. Vlad Sr. was one of the best to do it. Twice Vlad went 35/35 (homers to steals) and that was at a time where your power hitter was not encouraged to try and steal bases. Vlad amassed 181 stolen bases in his career, and you would have to believe if he played in this generation he would have incorporated more into his game.
Regardless, a Vlad Junior and Senior collection has been a lot of fun, and I will continue hunt down great deals on rookies and/or autos.
My Diamond Dynasty Update: 15-8 (ranked seasons)
The Cornwall Cobras are off to a great start! In my 15 wins this season, I trailed in 11 of them! This team his spirit and the winning edge, and it just takes me forever to figure out how to hit sometimes. But regardless, my substandard starting pitching has weathered many storms and my offense has been prolific to say the least (only one starter batting below .300).
My Team: 88 Overall
My Best Pack Pull: Cody Bellinger (98k)
This is one of the best pulls I have ever got in Diamond Dynasty! I know if you follow the streamers on Twitter, Twitch or YouTube it seems like someone pulls a Mike Trout every day, but let's be real, we can't all be that lucky. But this will do. I thought about keeping Bellinger to replace Ohtani, but the deal was too good to pass up. I now have 130k+ in stubs, and since it's so early in the baseball season and in the game, I thought I'd save the stubs for something I really want/need...
...like pitching...
...if I could only pull that Jacob deGrom.
What to look forward to: The Weekend of May 21-23
Notable Series:
Red Sox (1st place AL East) vs. Phillies (2nd place NL East)
Blue Jays (3rd place AL East) vs. Rays (4th place AL East)
Cubs (3rd place NL Central) vs. Cardinals (1st place NL Central)
Giants (1st place NL West) vs. Dodgers (3rd place NL West)
Padres (2nd place NL West) vs. Mariners (3rd place AL West)
Looking at the schedule for the remainder of the month, there are multiple series that deserve a great deal of attention. Whether it is classic rivalries like Cubs/Cardinals or Giants/Dodgers, or matchups against playoff hopefuls Red Sox/Phillies and Blue Jays/Rays. All of these matchups are worth the watch, but the one that stands out to me is going to be the Padres/Mariners.
The Padres are off to a great start despite the injuries/COVID concerns to Tatis. And while all the talk in the offseason was the Padres acquisition of Blake Snell, and the anticipation of Makenzie Gore being called up at some point this season, it's the Padres ‘other’ starters that are really making the Padres World Series contenders. Joe Musgrove and rookie Ryan Weathers have provided an extra punch to an already outstanding rotation. There is no denying that the Padres have the deepest pitching in all of baseball, and if these two continue to perform it may be a while before we see Gore in the majors.
While the Mariners are a game below .500, they have already outplayed their expectations. The M’s are enjoying a resurgence of Mitch Haniger’s power (current home run leader), Kyle Seager continues to play well, and Kyle Lewis is just recently back from injury. From a pitching side the Mariners staff may not contend for a Cy Young award this year, but it has not been as bad as most people (including myself) expected. While the M’s have been around .500 all year, they clearly have decided (in very un Tampa Bay like fashion) to try and become even better this season. Earlier this week they called up both Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert to the big league club, a clear sign Seattle’s future is now here, and it is this type of jolt that can take average teams into contending teams. Kelenic, in just his second game collected 3 hits, one being his first major league home run as he is already demonstrating that the hype around is legitimate. And even though Logan Gilbert’s first start did not go as well as planned, he is considered to be the best pitching prospect in the entire organization, so there is reason to be patient.
While this series is over a week away, the M’s, with the sudden influx of youth, could be on a hot streak heading into their series with San Diego which will make it even more compelling.
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