Another College Football season is upon us (unless you are counting Week 0, then it has already started) and it promises to be like any other. The off-field storylines which center around Oklahoma and Texas leaving the Big 12 for the SEC has created such a domino effect on the rest of the college landscape. The Big 10, Pac 12, and ACC have formed ‘An Alliance’ which promises to do...something...at some point...but nobody really knows.
What it does promise, is that this season could be the last of the ‘College Football’ as we know it. Players can not go out and make money using their likeness, the SEC could be its own College Football entity, and Michigan will likely be bad once again…
...so maybe not everything has changed.But for the time being let’s just focus on the on-field storylines. Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State are once again the best teams in the country.
What else is new?
The real focus of this season will be can anyone dethrone these three Goliath programs and emerge as the new national contender? Recent history has shown us that the answer is no, that each one of these schools has so far surpassed every other school in the country and it would be a fool’s bet to bet against them.
Or would it? Because if you look at the sport from a more historic standpoint, history has taught us that not everything lasts forever. The USC’s, the Miami’s, and even the Alabama’s have their reigns, but have their fall. The question will be, does the fall begin this season?
Let’s take a look and see what could transpire this season:
Conference Winners:
ACC: Clemson
Miami makes it interesting, but the rest of the conference is still so down for anyone else to really factor into it. Clemson cake walks to the ACC title game, and I’m betting Miami is able to challenge them for a bit, but the Tigers ultimately prevail.
Big 10: Ohio State
If you think the ACC is down, have a gander over at the old Big 10. Ohio State should have an easy pathway, once they dispose of Penn State, which may be tougher than you think, and ride that to the Big 10 title game where they will probably play Wisconsin once again. Some experts really like Wisconsin this year (I’m not calling myself an expert) but Ohio State is still in its own class.
Big 12 Winner: Oklahoma
It seems every conference with the exception of the SEC is going to come down to two teams. In the case of the Big 12, it’s going to come down to Oklahoma and Iowa State (because I’m not falling for the Texas trap again) and that promises to be one of the best games of the year. I really like Oklahoma this year, and the Big 12 trophy should not be the only one they hoist up this season.
Pac 12: Oregon
The PAC-12 is quietly getting better, and promises to be one of the better conferences this season, because of that, if Oregon emerges as the PAC-12 winner then they should make the Playoff without a problem. Washington and USC will make for compelling matchups and a late season road trip to Utah will be tough, but the Ducks have a lot of talent, and this might be Cristobal’s most talented team all around.
SEC: Texas A&M
Just go ahead and read below...
5 Teams Who Can Blow It Up
And by this I mean, the five teams that could completely blow up the experts preseason predictions for 2021. There is no denying that College Football has not seen a lot of variety in terms of teams competing or the title, and it seems every year it comes down to the following teams: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama and Notre Dame (yes deny it all you want, but Notre Dame always factors into it). College Football is in desperate need for someone new to emerge as a national contender, which could go a long way in furthering talks for an expanded playoff. It has been hard to argue that 8 teams should play for the title, when the same four to five teams play in the Playoff every year. So here are the teams that could really challenge the narrative for who fights for the National Title:
5. Penn State:
Penn State had a terrible, nay, horrendous, nay an abysmal 2020 season. Penn State lost their first five games of the season, and despite rallying to win the final four, none of those wins were against a ranked opponent. Penn State gave up a lot of points a year ago (27 a game) and it was by far the worst season under coach James Franklin. A lot of people are sleeping on the Nittany Lions this year, and with 16 returning starters (9 on offense and 7 and defense) expect Penn State to be in Big 10 contention for the entire season. Penn State opens with Wisconsin to start the year, and that should be a good indicator of where Penn State will stack up. If they survive their trip to Wisconsin, only Ohio State remains as their only preseason ranked opponent. Penn State could roll into Columbus undefeated on October 30th, and a win would vault them right into the playoff picture with only Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State on their schedule.
4. Miami
No seriously, Miami could be really good this year. In fact, Miami could be one of the most consistent/stable teams in the country this year (When was the last time you heard that?).
Why? Well Miami finally has stability in two key areas, quarterback and coaching. Houston transfer D’Eriq King Jr. was one of the most explosive players in the country at Houston and in first year with the Hurricanes following his 2019 injury ridden year, he showed the same explosiveness. King completed over 60% of his passes, he threw only 5 interceptions, and he had Miami knocking at the door with 8 wins in 2020. Two terrible losses against Clemson and North Carolina kept Miami out of the title hunt. But with 19 returning starters (10 on offense, and 9 on defense) Miami will be in the thick of it once again in 2021. This year they avoid Clemson in the regular season schedule and a midseason road test at North Carolina will decide the fate of the Coastal division of the ACC. Miami plays Alabama in the first game of the year, but if they are able to pull off the upset, they could be undefeated headed into the ACC title game against Clemson. But even if they are unable to beat Alabama (not many do), a one loss to the Tide looks pretty attractive as well.
3. Texas A&M:
Could we see a changing of the guard in the SEC? When Jimbo Fisher left Florida State for College Station he promised to turn the Aggies into a powerhouse and 2021 might be the stage to do it. The Aggies are going to have one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Isaiah Spiller, a true freshman last year, averaged 5.4 yards a carry and rushed for over 100 yards 3 times. The Aggies have depth at the position with Ainias Smith and Devon Achane and with that the Aggies expect to be a physical team in 2021. They also have big playmakers on the outside like Deymond Demas and Caleb Chapman but the real strength of A&M lies on the defense. Phil Steele ranks the DL and their DBs to be the 6th best in the entire nation which gives Fisher his strongest defensive group in his tenure. How do you win in the SEC? Run the ball consistently, make big plays in the air, and have one of the best defenses in the country. A&M checks all of the boxes.
2. Oregon
Now Oregon has been in the title picture before, but the Ducks in 2021 could establish themselves, very early on, as a playoff favorite. The PAC-12, once again, is an enigma of a conference. Utah has been the most consistent over the last three years, and while USC and Washington have high hopes in 2021, there is a lot both teams have to have to go their way for them to become playoff hopefuls. Simply put, there are fewer questions around the Ducks, and much more to be excited for. Oregon has some of the best skill set units in the entire nation to go along with, what should be the toughest defense in the PAC-12 as well. Their toughest matchups will be at Ohio State on September 11th and at Washington on November 6th. But Oregon has not lost to Washington since 2017, and Oregon has been one of the best teams in the country at home. If Oregon is able to win one of these two tough road games, and take care of business at home, and of course avoid the let down game on the road (@Stanford on Oct 2nd, @UCLA on Oct.23rd, and @Utah on November 20th) a one loss Oregon team will be right in the thick of the playoff race by the end of June.
1. Iowa State
Iowa State is going to finally break through in 2021...maybe. Iowa State and coach Matt Campbell have shown flashes of brilliance over the last couple of years, always threatening to be the new contender in the evaporating Big 12. Brock Purdy returns, and promises to be one of, if not the best quarterback in the nation to go along with one of the best running back and wide receiver groups (3rd & 8th) and one of the best offensive lines in the country as well (4th). Now Iowa State’s defense will never be confused with say Alabama, but it’s the Big 12 and nobody plays defense anyways. What is really compelling is how the schedule sets up for the Cyclones. They avoid get both Texas and Iowa at home, and don’t play Oklahoma until the 2nd to last week of the season. So there is a strong chance Iowa State is undefeated heading into that matchup. But the game is in Norman, a place where Iowa State has played upset before (2017) and Iowa State defeated Oklahoma last year 37-30. This offense is better than it was a year ago, and they are more than capable of not just keeping up with the Sooners, but surpassing them.
10 Games To Watch:
10. Wisconsin vs. Penn State (September 4th): An early Big 10 matchup, one of these teams (maybe both) are going to be real contenders not only for the Big 10 but quite possibly the playoff.
9. Ohio State vs. Oregon (September 11th): An early season contest that could easily throw off everyone’s predictions. The PAC-12 needs this desperately.
8. Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (September 25th in Chicago): Every year people want to write off Notre Dame. Every year. But a win against the Badgers will give the Irish a strong enough schedule once again to sustain one loss and make the Playoff. If the Badgers can take care of Penn State week 1 and then beat the Irish, they too will be heavy favorites to make the playoff.
7. Alabama vs. LSU (November 6th): LSU is one team that I don’t know if anyone has an accurate estimate as to who they are. Two years removed from their title run, LSU promises to be back in SEC contention. Their November 6th matchup should reveal quite a bit.
6. LSU vs. Texas A&M (November 27th): Now if LSU is able to beat Alabama, this game could vault right to the top. However if they lose, and lose handily, it could vault out of the top ten. So I thought 6th is a reasonable place. But mark my words, it is very, very, possible that the SEC is decided in Death Valley.
5. Alabama vs. Miami (September 4th in Atlanta): If Miami is for real, they are going to need to push Alabama to the limit. This is a great way to start the year.
4. Georgia vs. Clemson (September 4th in Charlotte): This is obviously very good as well. This could be a sneak peek to a playoff matchup in January. Georgia has a ton to prove, and a win against Clemson could reshape how the country views them.
3. Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (November 20th): The Big 12 will be decided this day in Norman, and if Oklahoma and Iowa State are as good as people think they are, both could be ranked in the top 5 heading into this game.
2. Ohio State vs. Penn State (October 30th): Read above and just sub out Big 12 for Big 10 and Oklahoma and Iowa State with Ohio State and Penn State.
1. Texas A&M vs. Alabama (October 9th): Over 100,000 people will be on hand to watch the Tide and Aggies decide the fate of the SEC. College Station has not been friendly to Alabama, and Jimbo Fisher finally has the defense to climb the mountain and overcome the Tide.
The Playoff Prediction:
4. Oklahoma vs. 1. Ohio State
3. Clemson vs. 2. Texas A&M
1. Oklahoma vs. 2. Texas A&M
Winner: Oklahoma
Lincoln Riley is a really good coach and it is borderline disappointing that he has yet to win a National Title, despite the reigns of Clemson and Alabama. But this is the year the Sooners finally break through, and after years of lofty expectations and disappointing outcomes, Riley and Oklahoma will break through and secure their first National Title since 2000.
My First 2022 Mock Draft (First 10 Picks)
It is way too early to do any kind of mock draft, but if you are going to do one, you might as well be bold! But there is some logic behind it as well:
First thing is first, Detroit, Houston and the New York Jets are going to be in contention all year long for the first pick. All three have incredibly different issues considering they will all be vying for the spot as the worst team in the league. The Jets have their quarterback, but little else, Detroit has a quarterback as well, but he is very expensive, and the Texans have a quarterback who they don’t even want anymore (mostly because of Watson’s offield legal battles) but aside from the quarterback position, these teams need help all over the field. Depending on who is picking first, we could see some crazy picks in the top 3. For now I have Detroit in the number one spot, and it doesn’t get crazier than Evan Neal going number one.
Now there is nothing against Neal as a player, he is sensational, but he is guard, and guards typically don’t go number one. But Detroit is not a typical team, and head coach Dan Campbell is anything but typical. But Neal does align himself with everything Detroit is “trying” to do to win, so for now that makes some sense. Even though it wouldn’t be the greatest of picks.
Outside of the top 3, I do have some surprises. The biggest is Seattle picking in the top 10, with San Francisco getting their guys back healthy, the Rams stabilizing the quarterback position, and Arizona continuing to improve. I think this is the year the bottom drops out in Seattle. The Seahawks move on from Pete Carrol and Russell Wilson is finally able to force a trade out of Seattle. Therefore they will need a new quarterback of the future, and that’s when Matt Corral should fall into their laps.
I am also anticipating San Diego coming back down to earth a little bit from the post Justin Heurbert explosion of a year ago. Like Seattle, I think the rest of the AFC West is very good (watch out for Denver) and San Diego is going to have some growing pains, and the Chargers would benefit from another impact player on defense, and Thibodeaux here would help greatly.
Football season is finally upon us, so it is never too early to look towards the future.
That’s how I get by as a Michigan fan.
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