MLB Offseason Predictions: AL East

 The baseball off-season is upon us! It is a time to be optimistic, hopefully, and obsessively scroll through twitter trying to find updates and breaking news. With the expansion of the baseball playoffs here to stay, and the new rules approaching in 2023, teams all across the country should be excited to improve their clubs and push closer and closer to the promised land. However, the Astros have created quite a mountain for teams to climb.

With the Astros going to their 4 World Series in the last 6 years, and winning their second World Series title, teams seem to be playing catchup with who is undeniably the best organization in baseball. Their cheating scandal that plagued their organization has lost a bit of luster on those who don’t want to recognize what the Astros have accomplished during that time, and this title served as vindication for an organization looking to silence those doubters. While watching the Astros throughout the 2022 season, including the playoffs, you couldn’t see a single flaw, or crack in the armor. The Astros had a top end starting rotation, a deep lineup, and the best bullpen in baseball. While baseball experts (one I pretend to be) focused throughout the season on the impressive runs of the New York Mets, then the Atlanta Braves and the Dodgers quietly won 100+ games again, it seemed the Astros were the quietest/greatest team in baseball from start to end. And if you are still going to be anti-Astro, consider this, out of their 8 players who had a WAR of 3.0 or higher, 6 of them (Alvarez, Bregman, Pena, Tucker, Valdez, and Javier) are under the age of 30. The Astros are not going anywhere.

So this is the time for the rest of the baseball world to try and close the gap. With the new rules for the 2023 season, the game promises to be more offense-heavy, and there are some big bats out there that will transform lineups, teams and possibly the balance of power. But pitching still wins and with the likes of Jacob deGrom available, one big signing could change everything. 

To begin, we start with the AL East, a division that saw four teams, not including the Red Sox surprisingly, fight for playoff spots. The Orioles and Rays rode their youth to success while the Yankees and Blue Jays battled it out for the top spot in the division, both to see themselves be swept out of the playoffs in disappointing fashion. So what is in store for a division that all of sudden, is wide open? 

Boston Red Sox 

2022 Season Review The Boston Red Sox hoped to follow up on their 2021 success that brought them to just two wins away from reaching the World Series. But that 2021 success was predicated on a lot going their way. In 2022, nothing went the Red Sox way. Sure, Rafael Devers and Xander Boagarts did a lot of hitting, but the pitching staff was a disaster, they didn’t seem to hit on any of their young guys (Duran, Dalbec, Casas, Bello) and found themselves finishing in last place in the NL East.

What They Need Well the Red Sox need pitching, and then they should get some more pitching, and just to be safe, they should go get even more pitching. The Red Sox best starter in 2022 was Michael Wacha (who is a free agent) and there seems to be nothing coming up from the minors that is going to change that. Chris Sale’s career seems all but over, there is nothing more they can ask from Nathan Evoladi (and he is a free agent), and as for the rest of the rotation you have to play a game of ‘Guess Who’ to try and figure it out. If you think that is bad, the bullpen is worse.

What They Could Do General Manager Chaim Bloom has been incredibly conservative during his tenure, and patience has been running out in Boston for quite some time. Many believe that if Bloom cannot turn it around this season, then 2023 will be his last season with the Red Sox. So if that is the case the Red Sox should make some splashes for starting pitchers, the problem is, in terms of free agency, there are no big name pitchers that could immediately impact the roster. But the one thing Bloom could do is use his surplus of minor league prospects and make a trade for a starter or two who could immediately help the Red Sox. Maybe call up Miami and make a play for Pablo Lopez, see the availability of German Marquez in Colorado, or see if you can go bigger and dial up the Brewers and see if they would be willing to dangle either Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff. All three of those teams could be looking to shake things up and adding prospects would certainly benefit all three clubs and the Red Sox sorely need the aces.

What They Will Do I think Chaim Bloom holds onto his prospects and gives them another shot in 2023. Players like Duran, Dalbec and Casas got rave reviews in the minors and he will probably bank on at least one of those guys making a big impact in 2023. But Xander Bogaerts is testing free agency, doesn’t seem like Boston is motivated to bring him back which will upset those in Beatown but this is how Boston will make up for it: 1) Extend Rafael Devers (8 years, 250 million) 2) Brings back catcher, Christian Vazquez (1 year, 10 million)  3) Signs Jameson Taillon (2-4 year deal 15 million per)  4) Signs Chris Bassitt (2 years, 50 million) 5) Signs Michael Brantley (1 year, 10 million)  The thinking is the Red Sox will give Bloom some instruction to spend money, but with the exception of Devers, no long-term deals. If the Red Sox are competitive with the additions they make in the offseason perhaps they go big game hunting at the trade deadline and Bloom saves his job. If not, he may be looking for a job at the deadline himself.

Baltimore Orioles 

2022 Season Review  The Baltimore Orioles had a coming out party in 2022! Heading into mid-late August the Orioles were just a handful of games away from getting into one of those wildcard spots. But hey, 83 wins for fans in Baltimore probably felt like 103 considering how horrendous the team has been for nearly a decade now. But it appears Baltimore has put that behind them and a very interesting offseason for the O’s will tell us if they will put their foot on the gas pedal on this team or not.  Let’s not forget that in the midst of this run the Orioles traded away their closer, Jorge Lopez, and fan favorite/middle of the order bat in Trey Mancini. The Orioles know they are going to be very good one day, but Orioles fans are not sure if that day will be in 2023 or after? With their top two prospects, Adely Rutschman and Gunner Henderson having outstanding debuts in 2022, and more talent on the way in the minors, the Orioles could be on the verge of building a consistent winner. But how aggressive does that make them this offseason?

What They Need Starting pitchers and a veteran bat. In the past, when Baltimore was a contender, they have had no problems spending big money to bring in free agents but this offseason is more than likely not the offseason they try to do so. However, there are some guys out there that Baltimore could give hefty contracts to try and speed up the process.

What They Could Do Carlos Rondon makes a lot of sense for Baltimore, but since he is one of the best starters on the market, Baltimore may not want to get involved in a bidding war. Same can obviously be said about Jacob deGrom. From a veteran bat standpoint, the Orioles will have a slew to pick from that they could use at several positions or at the DH spot. Guys like Jose Abreu, Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benitendi make a lot of sense or the Orioles could go for something bigger like a Carlos Correa or Xander Boagarts if they really want to make a splash. The good news for the Orioles, because of the season they had, they really can’t go wrong. Bring in some nice pieces and try to build off the success they had.

What They Will Do Play it safe with starting pitching, and add a veteran bat to upgrade the lineup: 1) Signs Xander Bogaerts (8 years, 210 million)  2) Signs Martin Perez (4 years, 65 million) 3) Signs Carlos Carrasco (2 years, 40 million)  I think the Orioles will be one of those teams that make that splash. We have seen this time and time again with teams that are on the brink of being a competitor, with lots of young talent, making that move for a player to make them legitimate. Like the Padres with Machado, or the Tigers with Baez, teams decide to go all in. And in the cases with Machado and Baez, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. But I think Baltimore does it with Bogaerts because of his familiarity with the AL East, the need at the position (and he can easily transition to third base as he gets older, which is another position of need). Bogaerts makes the Baltimore lineup pretty formidable if Rutschman and Henderson can build off of their rookie campaigns and with Mountcastle, Santander, and Mullins, Baltimore becomes one of the deeper lineups in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays

2022 Season Review The Tampa Bay Rays did what they have been doing for the last five years now… Bring up great players, compete against all odds, and then fade away in the postseason. 2022 proved to be more of the same, but there seems to be a knick in the armor.  The Rays were hit by injuries more than any other team in the bigs. Tyler Glasnow was hurt for nearly the whole season, Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan got hurt down the stretch, Wander Franco spent most of his season on the DL, Brandon Lowe only played 60+ games and up and down the roster seemed to be a revolving door of players trying to fill in. And the Rays still won 86 games. But they were also very poor offensively. Randy Arozarena led the team with 20 homers, the next closest was Ji-Man Choi with 11. While even the most optimistic Rays fan can bank on Franco and Lowe staying healthy in 2023 and returning to form, the team still needs an injection of production in the batter’s box.  But it’s Tampa Bay, how much will they truly try to inject in the offseason?

What They Need  Offense is obvious, but Tampa needs to add at least another arm to the staff as insurance. Glasnow should be good to go in 2023, but he may be on a pitch count. McClanahan may require even caution and with Shane Baz likely to miss the entire 2023 with Tommy John surgery, the Rays could benefit from a veteran pitcher who can eat up some innings. Tampa has been savvy with guys who can do exactly that, like Corey Kluber last year, but another one or two would go a long way in maximizing their aces and bullpen in 2023.

What They Could Do Tampa Bay is one of the youngest teams in baseball, but no team in the AL East should be more optimistic about their future. Tampa Bay knows who they are, and what they can do. There are no big contracts to negotiate in the future, the pipeline that comes through Tampa is always one of the best in the game, and in all likelihood they should not be as snake bitten with the injury bug as they were in 2022.  So they could just take it easy this offseason, sign some veterans and come out and win 90+ games again and be a real World Series contender…

What They Will Do  And that will be exactly what they do this offseason. So I see the Rays signing: 1) Wade Miley (1 year, 8 million)  2) Carlos Martinez (1 year, 8 million)

Toronto Blue Jays 

2022 Season Review  The Blue Jays returned to the postseason in 2022 after being big time spenders last offseason. It seemed all of their moves worked, they found themselves an ace in Kevin Gausman, Matt Chapman found his form again, Alejandro Kirk turned into an all-star catcher, Alec Manoah turned into an ace himself, and oh yeah Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are really good too. Toronto has their core, they have veterans, they even have some more prospects along the way as well. But that postseason performance…something about it just seemed off. Toronto was swept by the Seattle Mariners. One game, they couldn’t hit, and the next they couldn’t pitch. Was this just an aberration or do the Blue Jays not have all the pieces?

What They Need One area the Blue Jays need to improve is the bullpen. The Blue Jays have a couple of reliable options in Jordan Romano and Adam Cimber, but it is also one of the older bullpens in the league and they lack the strikeout pitchers needed to close out the end of games. But with three of the bigger names on the relief market gone (Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, Rafael Montero) the Blue Jays may need to think outside the box in order to improve the position.

What They Could Do The Blue Jays could continue to just double down on this team. Keep handing out big contracts, keep trying to improve by bringing on big names or established veterans. There is no doubt that this team has everything needed to win the AL East, win the American League, and the World Series.  But there could be a feeling going into this season that the window is closing. The Jays have money to spend, and are willing to spend it, but they are three years away from having to sign Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. While that may seem a ways away, for a team that just got swept in the Wild Card round, perhaps being bold isn’t the worst strategy.

What They Will Do  I don’t see many big splashes for the Blue Jays, at least not during the offseason, but I do think they will address that bullpen position: 1) Trade Teoscar Hernandez to the Rockies for Daniel Bard, low end pitcher 2) Sign Taylor Rogers

New York Yankees 

2022 Season Review  It was more of the same for the New York Yankees in 2022, great during the regular season, and then that fall reminder that they are a deeply flawed team. The Yankees inability to address their glaring needs over the past five years is really troublesome but yet sombering considering stubbornness runs in the Steibrenner family. George Sr. would exercise his stubbornness by opening his wallet, while his son appears to do the opposite. You have to wonder how much longer ownership can stick with this strategy of employing positional players who are either offensive or defensive liabilities, a starting rotation, outside of Gerrit Cole, that struggles to find consistency from year to year, and a bullpen that is always so overworked by the time October rolls around. With so many issues to once again address, this year undoubtedly is the worst year to try and bring back Aaron Judge who is coming off of one of the greatest seasons in baseball history. The Yankees can ill-afford to lose Aaron Judge, but anyone would have to wonder if they did sign him, would they continue to spend money to fill their many holes. Perhaps these fiscally conservative Yankees may take 300-400 million they would spend on Judge, and try to fill these holes.

What They Need Pitching, defense up in the middle and hitters with low strikeout rates is what the Yankeees need if they hope to change their fate over the next few years. While Cole and Nestor Cortes was a solid 1-2 punch for the Yankees in 2022, and Luis Severino showed flashes of brilliance again, the Yankees could benefit from adding a couple more pitchers to the rotation for depth purposes which should ease the burden of the bullpen.  Offensively and defensively, the Yankees are going to have their work cut out for them, especially if they lose Aaron Judge, which I do expect will happen. While they are not going to be able to fully replace the offensive production left behind by Judge, they can help the lineup by not replacing his presence with somebody who is going to strikeout 200+ a year, but will hopefully hit for a respectable batting average. Which the Yankees sorely need. And that player should not be a defensive liability either.

What They Could Do They could say “forget it, we are the Yankees” and spend half a million dollars trying to improve this team, which would include signing Aaron Judge as well as other big name free agents. There are the players available this year that could immediately reverse the Yankeees fortunes and finally get them over the hump and back to the World Series. But the Yankees have shown us time and time again that they are not going to go ‘buck’ wild (pun intended) and spend a lot of bucks to improve this team. Yes they will probably sign someone to a big deal, whether that be Judge or someone else, but if they do, that may be it for the Yankees who may be trying to piece this roster together until their big prospects like Anthony Volpe and Jasson Dominguez are ready to go. Perhaps the Yanks are recognizing the new core of this team is 2-3 years away.

What They Will Do  The Yankees are going to look different in 2021, especially if they don’t sign Aaron Judge: 1) Signs Trea Turner, 7 years 285 million  2) Re-signs Anthony Rizzo, 3 years 55 million 3) Signs Tommy Pham, 1 year 10 million  4) Signs Sean Manaea, 1 year 15 million  5) Trades Gleyber Torres to the San Francisco Giants for Anthony DeSeclafani and prospect Nick Zwack